Report 11: Shareholders Meeting

 

This Week:

Last Friday’s close $1.65
This Friday’s close $1.63

-$0.02

Institutional Info -Investors: 74 -Shares: 46,073,450
Fintel

Short Interest -Shares: 22,977,600 -Days To Cover 6.9 – Prior 23,920,200 Change -4 %
shortsqueeze.com

Overview

Welcome to the 11th NAK Report

Happy Fathers Day to all the dads out there! Another week has come and gone as we slip $0.03 overall. We saw a weekly high of $1.74 and a low of $1.52. Leaving the commentary short tonight as it was a busy weekend and I still have a lot to finish tonight …
Does anyone plan to attend the next shareholder meeting? If so, feel free to send us any photos to share with our subscribers
Thanks for your continuing support NAK Long   Friday, June 23, 2017 Annual General Meeting Vancouver, B.C.

Monday
$0.04
Previous close $1.65
Open-   $1.65
High      $1.70
Low-      $1.60
Close-    $1.69
Volume   2,246,743

Tuesday
$0.01
Open-   $1.69
High      $1.73
Low-      $1.64
Close-    $1.70
Volume    1,971,481

Wednesday
-$0.09
Open-    $1.72
High-     $1.74
Low-      $1.57
Close-   $1.61
Volume- 3,464,081

Thursday
-$0.09
Open-   $1.57
High-    $1.61
Low-     $1.52
Close-   $1.52
Volume-  2,590,714

Friday
$0.11
Open-   $1.55
High-    $1.64
Low-     $1.53
Close-   $1.63
Volume- 2,716,997

NDM Press Release

Northern Dynasty: Pebble Partnership retains ASRC Energy Services to enhance Alaska Native contracting
Northern Dynasty: Pebble Partnership retains ASRC Energy Services to enhance Alaska Native contracting
June 13, 2017 Vancouver – Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. (TSX: NDM; NYSE MKT: NAK) (“Northern Dynasty” or the “Company”) reports that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Alaska-based Pebble Limited Partnership (“Pebble Partnership” or “PLP”) has contracted ASRC Energy Services, Alaska Inc. (“AES”), a subsidiary of Arctic Slope Regional Corporation (“ASRC”), to work with the Pebble Project’s Alaska Native village corporation partners in an effort to enhance future Alaska Native contracting opportunities at Pebble.

“As we gear up for our 2017 field season and prepare to take the Pebble Project into federal and state permitting, we are also renewing our commitment to maximize contract and employment opportunities for local companies and local people,” confirmed Pebble Partnership CEO Tom Collier. “We know very well the challenging economic circumstances that confront Alaska Native village corporations and their shareholders in southwest Alaska, and we are making investments now to ensure they will benefit to the greatest extent possible at each stage of the Pebble Project’s development – during permitting, construction, operations and even closure.”….. More

In The News
From the NAK News Network and friends

Pebble Mine Project moves forward with new partnership

ANCHORAGE (KTUU) – Pebble Limited Partnership announced that it has entered into a business relationship with AES Regulatory and Technical Services in order to create opportunities for Alaska Native village corporations.

Pebble has been working toward setting up a mining project in Southwest Alaska.
The project hopes to capitalize on richly dense minerals around subsistence communities.
“We have long believed that native corporations, their shareholders and other residents of Southwest Alaska must be directly involved with and benefit directly from development of the pebble project,” PLP CEO, Tom Collier, said in a press release.

The releases said AES is tasked with making sure native corporations participate in the business development and planning of the pebble project.

“We look forward to working with PLP, and with the Alaska Native village corporations with which Pebble has established relationships,” said Doug Smith, President and CEO of ASRC Energy Services…..More


Pebble partners with ASRC, BBNC says fish still first

Bristol Bay region remains firmly opposed to proposed mine

June 15, 2017 Promoters of the Pebble project say they have partnered with a subsidiary of Arctic Slope Regional Corp. to enhance future Alaska Native contracting opportunities at the proposed mine near the headwaters of Bristol Bay in Southwest Alaska.
In a statement issued June 13, Northern Dynasty Minerals, Ltd., in Vancouver, British Columbia, said ASRC Energy Services consultants would lead a collaborative business development planning initiative to include Alaska Native village corporations with land holdings near the project site, and who have had contract relationships with the Pebble Limited Partnership in the past. The PLP is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Canadian mining firm.
Tom Collier, chief executive officer of the Pebble Partnership, said the PLP has had a local contracting and local employment preference for the past decade or more to ensure that the project provides meaningful benefits for local people. As the project moves forward, it is time for PLP to invest in a more formalized business development program to ensure that Alaska Native village corporations in that region will have the experience and capacity necessary to provide contract services when this project advances to construction and operations, Collier said…. More


A little dated but still a good read

Ending Obama EPA’s ban on Alaska’s Pebble Mine is right for American energy

The Environmental Protection Agency is again drawing the ire of environmentalists, this time by lifting an Obama-era ban on development of Alaska’s Pebble Mine. It’s part of a dramatic pivot driven by the Trump administration, with rule changes, proposals and executive orders all intended to realign U.S. public lands policy with the White House’s development-minded approach.

If the changes are implemented successfully, the administration has the opportunity to create much-needed jobs in the western half of the country. And if the Pebble Mine is any example, it could finally unchain the United States from what has been a dangerous dependency on critical mineral imports….More

Thank You all. for passing on info

 

Shareholder Views

Some commentary from John /BigDawgGmoney on NAK going forward

All,

Please ensure you do some work on valuation, and learn the value of NAK before you sell it. I will not suggest when you should sell, but realize, our analysis suggests shorts are trapped (as we have shared many times-see my past posts on the subject ) and as such,  shorts want you to sell early so that they can cover and make a profit.

Valuation is always important whenever you own an asset, you don’t sell a car without knowing what similar cars are selling for, a house, or even if you are selling a used pair of skis on craigslist you look around at similar priced skis right?  So the same should go for a stock.  Now companies can be over and undervalued at any moment, market dynamics play a role – ie sentiment, shorting, manipulation etc. This is why ‘timing’ the market is pretty much impossible, one never knows when an undervalued stock will be fairly valued, nor when the market will decide that the Tesla’s of this world are overvalued. What you can do however, is find value and be patient and wait until the market recognizes that value, especially if the delta (difference) between what it’s trading in the market for and its intrinsic value is material, as it is here.

In NAK’s case the valuation gap is extreme for many reasons, but in our view primarily shorting and manipulation

I have shared my views on valuation prior, and while not a price target, I have expressed how material this valuation gap is, and how to ‘think’ about value.  Cantor Fitzgerald’s report aligned quite closely with my views.

In addition to the valuation information stickied at the top (plus TD/Gabelli/Cantor) a very good comp was mentioned on Stocktwits by Logan recently. That comp is Auryn Resources.

Auryn is not even at the stage of development as Pebble / NAK, it has only Indicated and Inferred resources, it is a VERY early stage Au explorer.

The company’s market cap is USD$ 250 mil. Their company presentation suggests that they have just under 1 mil Oz of “INDICATED” Au –realize this is a step below NAK as Measured is a much more reliable estimate.  Their grade is comparable.  Auryn has immaterial amounts of copper and silver as well (relative to NAK).

NAK as we know has  70 mil Oz of “MEASURED and Indicated” Au, plus greater than 100years of strong grade copper and decades of silver. Again, grades are similar on Au.

So basic math, and not suggesting Auryn is not overvalued but this is just another comp and data point that continues to show how EXTREMELY undervalued NAK is relative to its publicly traded comparables on a resource valuation basis.

Auryn has  1.4% of the Au as Pebble/NAK and is trading at 50% of NAK’s market cap.  On a comparable basis, if NAK was valued in the SAME manner, just on Au ALONE (no value for Cu – when it’s a copper mine! Or Ag! Or Moly!) it would be valued at $18 billion on an equity value basis (255 mil/.014)

I will reiterate, clearly I am not saying that is the value of NAK, and I am not saying Auryn is not materially overvalued, but even if you cut Auryn’s valuation by 60% and then used them as a comparable (which they ‘were in the past’ and no longer are given EARLIER stage, as NAK is now a DEVELOPER not an explorer), it would suggest a value of $7.1 bn for the Au alone. Let me repeat that, on a comparable basis to an EARLIER stage Au Mining company, if we cut their market cap by 60%, and just valued NAK equivalently, our Au alone would be valued at $7.1 bn.

What this comp, what the company presentation valuation suggests, what Cantor’s view on ‘materially undervalued with material upside” means is holding this stock is the smart decision. Sure you may not ‘win short term on the swings’ but will you be positioned for the day, that none of us know when it will occur, that the market decides to start valuing this company fairly.

All that I know is that I want to be heavily invested on that day, week, month etc. And none of us know when that is.

As a reminder, insiders, mgmt, Stirling, did not sell a share at $3.50 preveto lift. They know the true value of NAK. Since then, we have had a veto lift and intense shorting to ‘game the stock’ , and on partner it may continue, but the truest test of valuation is the actions of management and insiders. If they did not sell with both veto risk AND partner risk on the table at $3.50 why would anyone sell after those risks are gone at 3.50 or even marginally higher? Clearly, management and insiders believe that the value of this company is multiples of that price, and they have shown as such with their own money (ie not selling).

Finally, we have suggested what MM’s are doing (swinging NAK’s stock back and forth is their attempt to ‘wear out longs’ ) can metaphorically be likened to  ‘training a dog’. With every move up then a short move down, they make longs frustrated (emotion right?),  and get you one step closer to selling every time as you get tired of it. This is by design. They want you to trade on emotion, not on facts and valuation, but fatigue and frustration. Why? Well they are trapped! And trapped does not mean they cannot cover, be aware of that, it just means that if they want to cover, they will move the pps materially/thus decreasing their return, or even setting off a squeeze and creating a loss.

I am waiting until the market starts recognizing the value here. I cannot tell people to sell or buy, but “selling the pop”, is simply assisting those who may need your shares to cover!

Know what you own, learn about value, and Keep the Faith!

Good Luck to all Longs!


Very funny read and so true…. Thanks PC for sharing

Click here to read

Thank you for reading and good luck
NAK Long

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