So much misinformation being posted!
Pebble is not a gold mine. It is a copper porphyry deposit, that like all porphyries is poly-metallic. In Pebble’s case, Copper-Gold with a lot of Mo, Ag and commercial values of Re and Pd.
A similar deposit in Panama (Cobre Panama) was owned by Inmet Mining. They had an 85% interest in the deposit. Quantum in 2013 had a hostile takeover of Inmet Mining for 5 billion Canadian dollars with the targeted asset being this deposit, a similar deposit to Pebble but lower grade in copper and substantially lower grade in gold. The Cobre Panama deposit is in the middle of the rain forest and had no infrastructure, roads, port etc, very similar to Pebble’s situation, requiring large capital expenditures (approx. 6 billion) to develop it. In addition there was considerable environmental opposition to it with 75% of the Panama population being opposed to open pit mining. Even so, Quantum acquired the asset and is developing it!
With regards to value:
The removal of the EPA 404c veto was immensely important, without the ability to get a permit, the deposit value was essentially 0! Now, with that threat removed, the share value should move towards the deposit’s NPV times the probability of them getting a permit, which under the current administration in my opinion, is close to one. An estimated NPV value today is close to 4 billion US dollars, or a stock price of $11 per share. This price will become firmer when they announce partners. Their previous partner agreed to invest 1.5 billion into the deposit. When this was announced, it implied a value for NAK of 3 billion. That is why the stock price shot up to $15 per share. Today a 3 billion valuation would give a stock price of $8.28, using the fully diluted share number of 362,000,000.
With regards to mine life:
Pebble is the largest undeveloped mineral resource in the world but it is not the only deposit on NAK’s leases in the area. Several other areas may contain similar deposits, but Pebble by itself contains enough minerals to support mining operations for over 100 years!
With regards to share dilution:
In my opinion, there is no possibility that there will be any additional share dilution at todays share price. If it comes, it will come after they have partners and a permit in hand. At that time the share price will probably be $20 + per share .

With regards to shorts:
One thing that shorts should consider is that NAK may not have potential partners, but potentially a buyer. If so, when it is announced, there will be no time to cover and you will lose multiple times what you gambled!

Leave a Reply

Be the First to Comment!

Notify of